Saturday, 29 April 2017

Money Supply Update (as of 28 Apr-17)

After falling into negative territory for eight consecutive weeks (see here for previous updates), the shorter term growth rate of the money supply has picked up during the last two weeks...


...driven partly by an increase in bank lending.


But the current y/y lending growth rate remains considerably lower than the average in recent years...


...thanks to bank lending for commercial and industrial purposes hitting levels last seen during the aftermath of the previous banking crisis.


Arguably, especially this last chart should be of particular interest to Austrian school investors (read this book!) and students of the Austrian theory of the business cycle since a decline in business lending can trigger the downward spiral of the business cycle.

Partly as a result of this week's pick-up in bank lending, the y/y growth rate of the money supply has also increased somewhat, but it does remain low compared to the norm over the last four years.





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